Target Price Playground
FER
$55.29
🟢
FER IV: 32.1% — LOW
(-27.4% vs 30d avg of 44.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $49 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $55 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.0 · Δ -0.43
SHORT PUT · $51 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $0.76 · Δ -0.21
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If FER hits $49 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$176 (78.6%) on $224 risked, vs $-629 (-11.4%) for 100 shares on $5,529. Options give 6.9× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FER is at $49. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if FER hits $49 by Dec 18
+$176
+78.6% on $224 risked
Max Profit
+$176
If the stock ≤ $51 at expiry
Max Loss
−$224
Net debit
Break-even
$52.76
-4.57% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
31%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-22.41 / -0.5 / 2.28
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| FER Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $44 (-20%) | +$151 | +$163 | +$174 | +$176 |
| $47 (-15%) | +$115 | +$134 | +$159 | +$176 |
| $49 (-11%) ← target | +$75 | +$93 | +$124 | +$176 |
| $50 (-10%) | +$58 | +$74 | +$103 | +$176 |
| $53 (-5%) | -$13 | -$10 | -$4 | +$23 |
| $54 (-2%) | -$55 | -$61 | -$75 | -$142 |
| $55 (0%) ← spot | -$82 | -$93 | -$117 | -$224 |
| $56 (+2%) | -$107 | -$122 | -$151 | -$224 |
| $58 (+5%) | -$138 | -$157 | -$187 | -$224 |
| $61 (+10%) | -$178 | -$195 | -$215 | -$224 |
| $64 (+15%) | -$201 | -$213 | -$222 | -$224 |
| $66 (+20%) | -$214 | -$220 | -$224 | -$224 |
Uses FER's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.