Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
FER
$55.29
🟢
FER IV: 32.1% — LOW (-27.3% vs 30d avg of 44.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $62 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

📋 Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.

🎯 Target

48d from today

⚙️ Legs

LONG CALL · $55 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $0.8 · Δ 0.57
SHORT CALL · $60 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $2.08 · Δ 0.29
P&L at Expiry Now $55 Target $62 $39 $55 $72
Stock (100 sh) Bull Call Spread Now Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target

If FER hits $62 by Dec 18: the bull call spread returns +$628 (490.6%) on $-128 credit (max loss $0), vs +$671 (12.1%) for 100 shares on $5,529. Options give 40.5× capital efficiency.

📅 Expiry

Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FER is at $62. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

📊 Projected Return

P&L if FER hits $62 by Dec 18
+$628
+490.6% on $128 max loss
Max Profit
+$500
If the stock ≥ $60 at expiry
Max Loss
−$0
Net debit
Break-even
$
None% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
28%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
27.15 / -0.6 / 0.57
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
💾 Log in to save 📊 My Saved Strategies

📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates

FER Price Today Nov 16 Dec 2 Dec 18 (exp)
$44 (-20%) +$134 +$129 +$128 +$128
$47 (-15%) +$148 +$137 +$129 +$128
$50 (-10%) +$180 +$161 +$138 +$128
$53 (-5%) +$236 +$214 +$177 +$128
$54 (-2%) +$279 +$261 +$227 +$128
$55 (0%) ← spot +$310 +$298 +$272 +$157
$56 (+2%) +$343 +$337 +$324 +$268
$58 (+5%) +$393 +$397 +$405 +$433
$61 (+10%) +$469 +$487 +$522 +$628
$62 (+12%) ← target +$497 +$519 +$557 +$628
$64 (+15%) +$529 +$553 +$590 +$628
$66 (+20%) +$571 +$593 +$617 +$628
Uses FER's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.