Target Price Playground
FER
$55.29
🟢
FER IV: 32.1% — LOW
(-27.3% vs 30d avg of 44.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $58 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
SHORT PUT · $51 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $0.76 · Δ -0.21
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Cash-Secured Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If FER hits $58 by Dec 18: the cash-secured put returns +$76 (1.5%) on $-76 credit (max loss $5,024), vs +$271 (4.9%) for 100 shares on $5,529. Options give 0.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FER is at $58. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if FER hits $58 by Dec 18
+$76
+1.5% on $5,024 max loss
Max Profit
+$76
If the stock ≥ $51 at expiry
Max Loss
−$5,024
If stock → $0 after assignment
Break-even
$50.24
-9.14% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
66%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
20.51 / 1.7 / -5.7
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| FER Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $44 (-20%) | -$600 | -$594 | -$593 | -$601 |
| $47 (-15%) | -$377 | -$354 | -$331 | -$324 |
| $50 (-10%) | -$200 | -$166 | -$120 | -$48 |
| $53 (-5%) | -$76 | -$40 | +$8 | +$76 |
| $54 (-2%) | -$26 | +$7 | +$45 | +$76 |
| $55 (0%) ← spot | -$0 | +$29 | +$59 | +$76 |
| $56 (+2%) | +$20 | +$44 | +$67 | +$76 |
| $58 (+5%) ← target | +$41 | +$59 | +$73 | +$76 |
| $61 (+10%) | +$62 | +$71 | +$76 | +$76 |
| $64 (+15%) | +$71 | +$75 | +$76 | +$76 |
| $66 (+20%) | +$74 | +$76 | +$76 | +$76 |
Uses FER's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.