Target Price Playground
FER
$55.29
🟢
FER IV: 32.1% — LOW
(-27.4% vs 30d avg of 44.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $53 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $55 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $2.73 · Δ -0.43
SHORT PUT · $53 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.35 · Δ -0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If FER hits $53 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$152 (110.6%) on $138 risked, vs $-229 (-4.1%) for 100 shares on $5,529. Options give 27.0× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FER is at $53. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if FER hits $53 by Dec 18
+$152
+110.6% on $138 risked
Max Profit
+$145
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$138
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$55.99
+1.26% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
71%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-11.65 / 0.37 / 2.8
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| FER Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $44 (-20%) | +$50 | +$50 | +$47 | +$44 |
| $47 (-15%) | +$52 | +$56 | +$58 | +$50 |
| $50 (-10%) | +$46 | +$56 | +$71 | +$73 |
| $53 (-4%) ← target | +$24 | +$36 | +$57 | +$152 |
| $54 (-2%) | +$12 | +$22 | +$39 | +$83 |
| $55 (0%) ← spot | -$0 | +$7 | +$19 | +$28 |
| $56 (+2%) | -$14 | -$9 | -$4 | -$16 |
| $58 (+5%) | -$34 | -$35 | -$39 | -$64 |
| $61 (+10%) | -$66 | -$73 | -$86 | -$110 |
| $64 (+15%) | -$92 | -$101 | -$114 | -$129 |
| $66 (+20%) | -$111 | -$119 | -$128 | -$136 |
Uses FER's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.