Target Price Playground
FER
$55.29
🟢
FER IV: 32.1% — LOW
(-27.4% vs 30d avg of 44.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $62 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $55 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $0.8 · Δ 0.57
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If FER hits $62 by Dec 18: the long call returns +$620 (775.0%) on $80 risked, vs +$671 (12.1%) for 100 shares on $5,529. Options give 64.0× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FER is at $62. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if FER hits $62 by Dec 18
+$620
+775.0% on $80 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
−$80
Premium paid
Break-even
$55.80
+0.92% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
28%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
56.56 / -3.07 / 7.97
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| FER Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $44 (-20%) | -$73 | -$78 | -$80 | -$80 |
| $47 (-15%) | -$56 | -$71 | -$79 | -$80 |
| $50 (-10%) | -$13 | -$43 | -$70 | -$80 |
| $53 (-5%) | +$69 | +$25 | -$28 | -$80 |
| $54 (-2%) | +$141 | +$92 | +$29 | -$80 |
| $55 (0%) ← spot | +$200 | +$149 | +$84 | -$51 |
| $56 (+2%) | +$266 | +$215 | +$153 | +$60 |
| $58 (+5%) | +$377 | +$330 | +$276 | +$225 |
| $61 (+10%) | +$595 | +$558 | +$522 | +$502 |
| $62 (+12%) ← target | +$696 | +$664 | +$635 | +$620 |
| $64 (+15%) | +$839 | +$812 | +$790 | +$778 |
| $66 (+20%) | +$1,099 | +$1,080 | +$1,066 | +$1,055 |
Uses FER's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.