Target Price Playground
FER
$55.29
🟢
FER IV: 32.1% — LOW
(-27.4% vs 30d avg of 44.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $49 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $55 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.0 · Δ -0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If FER hits $49 by Dec 18: the long put returns +$300 (100.0%) on $300 risked, vs $-629 (-11.4%) for 100 shares on $5,529. Options give 8.8× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FER is at $49. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if FER hits $49 by Dec 18
+$300
+100.0% on $300 risked
Max Profit
+$5,200
If stock → $0
Max Loss
−$300
Premium paid
Break-even
$52.00
-5.95% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
31%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-42.92 / -2.2 / 7.98
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| FER Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $44 (-20%) | +$751 | +$757 | +$766 | +$777 |
| $47 (-15%) | +$492 | +$488 | +$490 | +$500 |
| $49 (-11%) ← target | +$319 | +$305 | +$295 | +$300 |
| $50 (-10%) | +$258 | +$239 | +$223 | +$224 |
| $53 (-5%) | +$64 | +$30 | -$12 | -$53 |
| $54 (-2%) | -$29 | -$68 | -$120 | -$218 |
| $55 (0%) ← spot | -$82 | -$122 | -$176 | -$300 |
| $56 (+2%) | -$127 | -$166 | -$218 | -$300 |
| $58 (+5%) | -$180 | -$216 | -$260 | -$300 |
| $61 (+10%) | -$240 | -$266 | -$291 | -$300 |
| $64 (+15%) | -$272 | -$288 | -$298 | -$300 |
| $66 (+20%) | -$288 | -$296 | -$300 | -$300 |
Uses FER's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.