Target Price Playground
FER
$55.29
🟢
FER IV: 32.1% — LOW
(-27.3% vs 30d avg of 44.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $64 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $55 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $0.8 · Δ 0.57
LONG PUT · $55 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.0 · Δ -0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If FER hits $64 by Dec 18: the long straddle returns +$520 (136.8%) on $380 risked, vs +$871 (15.8%) for 100 shares on $5,529. Options give 8.7× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FER is at $64. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if FER hits $64 by Dec 18
+$520
+136.8% on $380 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
−$380
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$58.80
+6.35% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
16%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
13.64 / -5.27 / 15.95
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| FER Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $44 (-20%) | +$678 | +$678 | +$686 | +$697 |
| $47 (-15%) | +$435 | +$417 | +$411 | +$420 |
| $50 (-10%) | +$245 | +$196 | +$153 | +$144 |
| $53 (-5%) | +$133 | +$55 | -$39 | -$133 |
| $54 (-2%) | +$112 | +$24 | -$91 | -$298 |
| $55 (0%) ← spot | +$118 | +$27 | -$92 | -$351 |
| $56 (+2%) | +$139 | +$49 | -$66 | -$240 |
| $58 (+5%) | +$197 | +$114 | +$16 | -$75 |
| $61 (+10%) | +$355 | +$292 | +$232 | +$202 |
| $64 (+16%) ← target | +$602 | +$562 | +$533 | +$520 |
| $66 (+20%) | +$812 | +$784 | +$766 | +$755 |
Uses FER's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.