Target Price Playground
FER
$55.29
🟢
FER IV: 32.1% — LOW
(-27.4% vs 30d avg of 44.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $60 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $55.29 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $60 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $2.08 · Δ 0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If FER hits $60 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$679 (12.8%) on $5,321 risked, vs +$471 (8.5%) for 100 shares on $5,529. Options give 1.5× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if FER is at $60. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if FER hits $60 by Dec 18
+$679
+12.8% on $5,321 risked
Max Profit
+$679
If the stock ≥ $60 at expiry
Max Loss
−$5,321
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$53.21
-3.76% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
45%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
70.59 / 2.47 / -7.4
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| FER Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $44 (-20%) | -$899 | -$898 | -$898 | -$898 |
| $47 (-15%) | -$625 | -$622 | -$621 | -$621 |
| $50 (-10%) | -$359 | -$349 | -$345 | -$345 |
| $53 (-5%) | -$109 | -$87 | -$71 | -$68 |
| $54 (-2%) | +$27 | +$58 | +$87 | +$97 |
| $55 (0%) ← spot | +$111 | +$149 | +$188 | +$208 |
| $56 (+2%) | +$189 | +$233 | +$282 | +$319 |
| $58 (+5%) | +$291 | +$342 | +$405 | +$484 |
| $60 (+9%) ← target | +$391 | +$447 | +$517 | +$679 |
| $61 (+10%) | +$427 | +$482 | +$553 | +$679 |
| $64 (+15%) | +$520 | +$570 | +$628 | +$679 |
| $66 (+20%) | +$578 | +$618 | +$657 | +$679 |
Uses FER's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.