Target Price Playground
GILD
$170.68
🟢
GILD IV: 28.9% — LOW
(-47.8% vs 30d avg of 55.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $150 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $170 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $6.5 · Δ -0.46
SHORT PUT · $155 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $2.0 · Δ -0.18
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If GILD hits $150 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$1,050 (233.3%) on $450 risked, vs $-2,068 (-12.1%) for 100 shares on $17,068. Options give 19.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GILD is at $150. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if GILD hits $150 by Dec 18
+$1,050
+233.3% on $450 risked
Max Profit
+$1,050
If the stock ≤ $155 at expiry
Max Loss
−$450
Net debit
Break-even
$165.50
-3.03% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
28%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-28.05 / -2.51 / 9.1
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| GILD Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $137 (-20%) | +$943 | +$993 | +$1,037 | +$1,050 |
| $145 (-15%) | +$798 | +$868 | +$967 | +$1,050 |
| $150 (-12%) ← target | +$677 | +$743 | +$855 | +$1,050 |
| $154 (-10%) | +$574 | +$628 | +$729 | +$1,050 |
| $162 (-5%) | +$307 | +$310 | +$315 | +$335 |
| $167 (-2%) | +$148 | +$119 | +$58 | -$177 |
| $171 (0%) ← spot | +$50 | +$3 | -$88 | -$450 |
| $174 (+2%) | -$39 | -$98 | -$206 | -$450 |
| $179 (+5%) | -$154 | -$222 | -$329 | -$450 |
| $188 (+10%) | -$293 | -$353 | -$421 | -$450 |
| $196 (+15%) | -$374 | -$414 | -$445 | -$450 |
| $205 (+20%) | -$416 | -$439 | -$449 | -$450 |
Uses GILD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.