Target Price Playground
GILD
$170.68
🟢
GILD IV: 28.9% — LOW
(-47.8% vs 30d avg of 55.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $190 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $170 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $9.16 · Δ 0.54
SHORT CALL · $185 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.32 · Δ 0.26
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If GILD hits $190 by Dec 18: the bull call spread returns +$916 (156.8%) on $584 risked, vs +$1,932 (11.3%) for 100 shares on $17,068. Options give 13.9× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GILD is at $190. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if GILD hits $190 by Dec 18
+$916
+156.8% on $584 risked
Max Profit
+$916
If the stock ≥ $185 at expiry
Max Loss
−$584
Net debit
Break-even
$175.84
+3.02% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
31%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
28.34 / -1.61 / 1.83
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| GILD Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $137 (-20%) | -$567 | -$580 | -$584 | -$584 |
| $145 (-15%) | -$525 | -$559 | -$581 | -$584 |
| $154 (-10%) | -$429 | -$488 | -$556 | -$584 |
| $162 (-5%) | -$263 | -$329 | -$439 | -$584 |
| $167 (-2%) | -$133 | -$186 | -$289 | -$584 |
| $171 (0%) ← spot | -$38 | -$76 | -$154 | -$516 |
| $174 (+2%) | +$61 | +$42 | +$1 | -$175 |
| $179 (+5%) | +$211 | +$223 | +$248 | +$337 |
| $188 (+10%) | +$440 | +$496 | +$601 | +$916 |
| $190 (+11%) ← target | +$494 | +$556 | +$669 | +$916 |
| $196 (+15%) | +$622 | +$694 | +$804 | +$916 |
| $205 (+20%) | +$748 | +$812 | +$884 | +$916 |
Uses GILD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.