Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
GILD
$170.68
🟢
GILD IV: 28.9% — LOW (-47.8% vs 30d avg of 55.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $180 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

📋 Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

🎯 Target

48d from today

⚙️ Legs

SHORT PUT · $155 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $2.0 · Δ -0.18
P&L at Expiry Now $171 Target $180 $119 $171 $222
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target

If GILD hits $180 by Dec 18: the cash-secured put returns +$200 (1.3%) on $-200 credit (max loss $15,300), vs +$932 (5.5%) for 100 shares on $17,068. Options give 0.2× capital efficiency.

📅 Expiry

Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GILD is at $180. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

📊 Projected Return

P&L if GILD hits $180 by Dec 18
+$200
+1.3% on $15,300 max loss
Max Profit
+$200
If the stock ≥ $155 at expiry
Max Loss
−$15,300
If stock → $0 after assignment
Break-even
$153.00
-10.36% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
17.84 / 5.05 / -15.46
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
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📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates

GILD Price Today Nov 16 Dec 2 Dec 18 (exp)
$137 (-20%) -$1,672 -$1,641 -$1,625 -$1,646
$145 (-15%) -$1,014 -$934 -$844 -$792
$154 (-10%) -$513 -$403 -$255 +$61
$162 (-5%) -$177 -$72 +$60 +$200
$167 (-2%) -$44 +$45 +$142 +$200
$171 (0%) ← spot +$21 +$97 +$170 +$200
$174 (+2%) +$71 +$133 +$186 +$200
$180 (+5%) ← target +$129 +$170 +$196 +$200
$188 (+10%) +$170 +$191 +$200 +$200
$196 (+15%) +$189 +$198 +$200 +$200
$205 (+20%) +$196 +$200 +$200 +$200
Uses GILD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.