Target Price Playground
GILD
$170.68
🟢
GILD IV: 28.9% — LOW
(-47.8% vs 30d avg of 55.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $160 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $170 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $8.81 · Δ -0.45
SHORT PUT · $160 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.3 · Δ -0.27
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If GILD hits $160 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$595 (108.0%) on $551 risked, vs $-1,068 (-6.3%) for 100 shares on $17,068. Options give 17.1× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GILD is at $160. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if GILD hits $160 by Dec 18
+$595
+108.0% on $551 risked
Max Profit
+$574
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$551
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$169.78
-0.53% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
58%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-18.81 / 0.62 / 10.03
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| GILD Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $137 (-20%) | +$383 | +$397 | +$400 | +$393 |
| $145 (-15%) | +$352 | +$385 | +$417 | +$409 |
| $154 (-10%) | +$276 | +$323 | +$393 | +$478 |
| $160 (-6%) ← target | +$187 | +$229 | +$302 | +$604 |
| $162 (-5%) | +$152 | +$189 | +$254 | +$452 |
| $167 (-2%) | +$61 | +$83 | +$117 | +$139 |
| $171 (0%) ← spot | -$3 | +$6 | +$16 | -$30 |
| $174 (+2%) | -$66 | -$70 | -$85 | -$168 |
| $179 (+5%) | -$159 | -$179 | -$221 | -$321 |
| $188 (+10%) | -$292 | -$329 | -$386 | -$465 |
| $196 (+15%) | -$393 | -$430 | -$477 | -$523 |
| $205 (+20%) | -$460 | -$491 | -$521 | -$543 |
Uses GILD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.