Target Price Playground
GILD
$170.68
🟢
GILD IV: 28.9% — LOW
(-47.8% vs 30d avg of 55.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $190 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $170 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $9.16 · Δ 0.54
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If GILD hits $190 by Dec 18: the long call returns +$1,084 (118.3%) on $916 risked, vs +$1,932 (11.3%) for 100 shares on $17,068. Options give 10.5× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GILD is at $190. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if GILD hits $190 by Dec 18
+$1,084
+118.3% on $916 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
−$916
Premium paid
Break-even
$179.16
+4.97% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
31%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
54.03 / -8.23 / 24.55
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| GILD Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $137 (-20%) | -$897 | -$912 | -$916 | -$916 |
| $145 (-15%) | -$845 | -$889 | -$913 | -$916 |
| $154 (-10%) | -$717 | -$807 | -$888 | -$916 |
| $162 (-5%) | -$467 | -$602 | -$762 | -$916 |
| $167 (-2%) | -$246 | -$398 | -$590 | -$916 |
| $171 (0%) ← spot | -$68 | -$224 | -$423 | -$848 |
| $174 (+2%) | +$134 | -$21 | -$216 | -$507 |
| $179 (+5%) | +$478 | +$333 | +$164 | +$5 |
| $188 (+10%) | +$1,147 | +$1,032 | +$922 | +$859 |
| $190 (+11%) ← target | +$1,339 | +$1,233 | +$1,137 | +$1,084 |
| $196 (+15%) | +$1,899 | +$1,817 | +$1,751 | +$1,712 |
| $205 (+20%) | +$2,703 | +$2,645 | +$2,600 | +$2,566 |
Uses GILD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.