Target Price Playground
GILD
$170.68
๐ข
GILD IV: 28.9% โ LOW
(-47.8% vs 30d avg of 55.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $190 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
48d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $170.68 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GILD hits $190 by Dec 18: the long stock returns +$1,932 (11.3%) on $17,068 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Dec 18.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GILD hits $190 by Dec 18
+$1,932
+11.3% on $17,068 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$17,068
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$170.68
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
31%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GILD Price | Today | Nov 30 | Dec 30 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $137 (-20%) | -$3,414 | -$3,414 | -$3,414 |
| $145 (-15%) | -$2,560 | -$2,560 | -$2,560 |
| $154 (-10%) | -$1,707 | -$1,707 | -$1,707 |
| $162 (-5%) | -$853 | -$853 | -$853 |
| $167 (-2%) | -$341 | -$341 | -$341 |
| $171 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $174 (+2%) | +$341 | +$341 | +$341 |
| $179 (+5%) | +$853 | +$853 | +$853 |
| $188 (+10%) | +$1,707 | +$1,707 | +$1,707 |
| $190 (+11%) โ target | +$1,932 | +$1,932 | +$1,932 |
| $196 (+15%) | +$2,560 | +$2,560 | +$2,560 |
| $205 (+20%) | +$3,414 | +$3,414 | +$3,414 |
Uses GILD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.