Target Price Playground
GILD
$170.68
🟢
GILD IV: 28.9% — LOW
(-47.8% vs 30d avg of 55.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $190 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $170.68 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $160 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.3 · Δ -0.27
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If GILD hits $190 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$1,602 (9.2%) on $17,398 risked, vs +$1,932 (11.3%) for 100 shares on $17,068. Options give 0.8× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GILD is at $190. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if GILD hits $190 by Dec 18
+$1,602
+9.2% on $17,398 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$1,398
Put floors you at $160
Break-even
$173.98
+1.93% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
31%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
73.39 / -6.48 / 20.66
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| GILD Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $137 (-20%) | -$1,426 | -$1,435 | -$1,427 | -$1,398 |
| $145 (-15%) | -$1,294 | -$1,350 | -$1,399 | -$1,398 |
| $154 (-10%) | -$1,031 | -$1,131 | -$1,258 | -$1,398 |
| $162 (-5%) | -$608 | -$724 | -$878 | -$1,183 |
| $167 (-2%) | -$279 | -$387 | -$524 | -$671 |
| $171 (0%) ← spot | -$32 | -$131 | -$245 | -$330 |
| $174 (+2%) | +$234 | +$147 | +$57 | +$11 |
| $179 (+5%) | +$663 | +$597 | +$540 | +$523 |
| $188 (+10%) | +$1,437 | +$1,400 | +$1,379 | +$1,377 |
| $190 (+11%) ← target | +$1,649 | +$1,619 | +$1,603 | +$1,602 |
| $196 (+15%) | +$2,254 | +$2,236 | +$2,230 | +$2,230 |
| $205 (+20%) | +$3,093 | +$3,086 | +$3,084 | +$3,084 |
Uses GILD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.