Target Price Playground
GILD
$170.68
🟢
GILD IV: 28.9% — LOW
(-47.8% vs 30d avg of 55.3%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $185 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $170.68 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $185 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.32 · Δ 0.26
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If GILD hits $185 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$1,764 (10.5%) on $16,736 risked, vs +$1,432 (8.4%) for 100 shares on $17,068. Options give 1.2× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GILD is at $185. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if GILD hits $185 by Dec 18
+$1,764
+10.5% on $16,736 risked
Max Profit
+$1,764
If the stock ≥ $185 at expiry
Max Loss
−$16,736
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$167.36
-1.95% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
46%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
74.31 / 6.62 / -22.72
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| GILD Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $137 (-20%) | -$3,084 | -$3,082 | -$3,082 | -$3,082 |
| $145 (-15%) | -$2,239 | -$2,230 | -$2,228 | -$2,228 |
| $154 (-10%) | -$1,419 | -$1,389 | -$1,376 | -$1,375 |
| $162 (-5%) | -$649 | -$580 | -$530 | -$521 |
| $167 (-2%) | -$228 | -$130 | -$41 | -$9 |
| $171 (0%) ← spot | +$30 | +$148 | +$269 | +$332 |
| $174 (+2%) | +$269 | +$405 | +$558 | +$673 |
| $179 (+5%) | +$585 | +$743 | +$937 | +$1,185 |
| $185 (+8%) ← target | +$882 | +$1,052 | +$1,267 | +$1,764 |
| $188 (+10%) | +$1,001 | +$1,171 | +$1,386 | +$1,764 |
| $196 (+15%) | +$1,283 | +$1,437 | +$1,613 | +$1,764 |
| $205 (+20%) | +$1,459 | +$1,581 | +$1,698 | +$1,764 |
Uses GILD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.