Target Price Playground
GILD
$129.83
๐ข
GILD IV: 26.8% โ LOW
(-46.5% vs 30d avg of 50.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $140 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
69d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $129.83 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $140 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $3.32 ยท ฮ 0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GILD hits $140 by Sep 18: the covered call returns +$1,349 (10.7%) on $12,651 risked, vs +$1,017 (7.8%) for 100 shares on $12,983. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (69 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GILD is at $140. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GILD hits $140 by Sep 18
+$1,349
+10.7% on $12,651 risked
Max Profit
+$1,349
If the stock โฅ $140 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$12,651
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$126.51
-2.56% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
54%
IV-implied, 69d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
68.18 / 4.51 / -20.47
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GILD Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $104 (-20%) | -$2,271 | -$2,266 | -$2,265 | -$2,265 |
| $110 (-15%) | -$1,637 | -$1,620 | -$1,615 | -$1,615 |
| $117 (-10%) | -$1,030 | -$990 | -$968 | -$966 |
| $123 (-5%) | -$473 | -$398 | -$335 | -$317 |
| $127 (-2%) | -$173 | -$74 | +$25 | +$72 |
| $130 (0%) โ spot | +$11 | +$125 | +$249 | +$332 |
| $132 (+2%) | +$180 | +$307 | +$455 | +$592 |
| $136 (+5%) | +$404 | +$546 | +$722 | +$981 |
| $140 (+8%) โ target | +$585 | +$733 | +$921 | +$1,349 |
| $143 (+10%) | +$702 | +$851 | +$1,038 | +$1,349 |
| $149 (+15%) | +$911 | +$1,049 | +$1,207 | +$1,349 |
| $156 (+20%) | +$1,048 | +$1,163 | +$1,278 | +$1,349 |
Uses GILD's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.