Target Price Playground
GOOG
$341.43
๐ข
GOOG IV: 33.2% โ LOW
(-27.0% vs 30d avg of 45.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $300 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $340 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.0 ยท ฮ -0.45
SHORT PUT ยท $315 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $8.55 ยท ฮ -0.26
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GOOG hits $300 by Nov 20: the bear put spread returns +$1,555 (164.6%) on $945 risked, vs $-4,143 (-12.1%) for 100 shares on $34,143. Options give 13.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GOOG is at $300. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GOOG hits $300 by Nov 20
+$1,555
+164.6% on $945 risked
Max Profit
+$1,555
If the stock โค $315 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$945
Net debit
Break-even
$330.55
-3.19% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
46%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-19.59 / -2.04 / 9.93
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GOOG Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $273 (-20%) | +$1,211 | +$1,320 | +$1,470 | +$1,555 |
| $290 (-15%) | +$979 | +$1,087 | +$1,282 | +$1,555 |
| $300 (-12%) โ target | +$821 | +$911 | +$1,094 | +$1,555 |
| $307 (-10%) | +$694 | +$765 | +$916 | +$1,555 |
| $324 (-5%) | +$384 | +$393 | +$415 | +$619 |
| $335 (-2%) | +$199 | +$169 | +$103 | -$405 |
| $341 (0%) โ spot | +$81 | +$27 | -$92 | -$945 |
| $348 (+2%) | -$32 | -$108 | -$267 | -$945 |
| $359 (+5%) | -$190 | -$289 | -$487 | -$945 |
| $376 (+10%) | -$413 | -$533 | -$734 | -$945 |
| $393 (+15%) | -$585 | -$702 | -$860 | -$945 |
| $410 (+20%) | -$711 | -$810 | -$915 | -$945 |
Uses GOOG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.