Target Price Playground
๐ Strategy
๐ฏ Target
โ๏ธ Legs
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GOOG hits $360 by Nov 20: the cash-secured put returns +$855 (2.8%) on $-855 credit (max loss $30,645), vs +$1,857 (5.4%) for 100 shares on $34,143. Options give 0.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GOOG is at $360. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GOOG Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $273 (-20%) | -$3,641 | -$3,484 | -$3,336 | -$3,331 |
| $290 (-15%) | -$2,434 | -$2,183 | -$1,870 | -$1,623 |
| $307 (-10%) | -$1,452 | -$1,141 | -$708 | +$84 |
| $324 (-5%) | -$697 | -$372 | +$77 | +$855 |
| $335 (-2%) | -$345 | -$34 | +$378 | +$855 |
| $341 (0%) โ spot | -$148 | +$148 | +$521 | +$855 |
| $348 (+2%) | +$21 | +$298 | +$626 | +$855 |
| $360 (+5%) โ target | +$257 | +$493 | +$742 | +$855 |
| $376 (+10%) | +$480 | +$659 | +$815 | +$855 |
| $393 (+15%) | +$636 | +$760 | +$844 | +$855 |
| $410 (+20%) | +$731 | +$811 | +$852 | +$855 |