Target Price Playground
GOOG
$341.43
๐ข
GOOG IV: 33.2% โ LOW
(-27.0% vs 30d avg of 45.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $380 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy shares and hold. Unlimited upside, full downside.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $341.43 ยท ฮ 1.00
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Stock
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GOOG hits $380 by Nov 20: the long stock returns +$3,857 (11.3%) on $34,143 risked, vs $ (None%) for 100 shares on $.
๐ Expiry
Stock-only position โ no expiry. Target date is Nov 20.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GOOG hits $380 by Nov 20
+$3,857
+11.3% on $34,143 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
โ$34,143
If stock โ $0
Break-even
$341.43
+0.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
49%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
100.0 / 0.0 / 0.0
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GOOG Price | Today | Oct 16 | Nov 15 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|
| $273 (-20%) | -$6,829 | -$6,829 | -$6,829 |
| $290 (-15%) | -$5,121 | -$5,121 | -$5,121 |
| $307 (-10%) | -$3,414 | -$3,414 | -$3,414 |
| $324 (-5%) | -$1,707 | -$1,707 | -$1,707 |
| $335 (-2%) | -$683 | -$683 | -$683 |
| $341 (0%) โ spot | +$0 | +$0 | +$0 |
| $348 (+2%) | +$683 | +$683 | +$683 |
| $359 (+5%) | +$1,707 | +$1,707 | +$1,707 |
| $376 (+10%) | +$3,414 | +$3,414 | +$3,414 |
| $380 (+11%) โ target | +$3,857 | +$3,857 | +$3,857 |
| $393 (+15%) | +$5,121 | +$5,121 | +$5,121 |
| $410 (+20%) | +$6,829 | +$6,829 | +$6,829 |
Uses GOOG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.