Target Price Playground
GOOG
$341.43
๐ข
GOOG IV: 33.2% โ LOW
(-27.0% vs 30d avg of 45.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $375 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $341.43 ยท ฮ 1.00
LONG PUT ยท $325 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $11.53 ยท ฮ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GOOG hits $375 by Nov 20: the protective put returns +$2,204 (6.2%) on $35,296 risked, vs +$3,357 (9.8%) for 100 shares on $34,143. Options give 0.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GOOG is at $375. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GOOG hits $375 by Nov 20
+$2,204
+6.2% on $35,296 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
โ$2,796
Put floors you at $325
Break-even
$352.96
+3.38% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
55%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
66.77 / -12.85 / 54.91
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GOOG Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $273 (-20%) | -$2,653 | -$2,764 | -$2,842 | -$2,796 |
| $290 (-15%) | -$2,257 | -$2,468 | -$2,702 | -$2,796 |
| $307 (-10%) | -$1,655 | -$1,947 | -$2,336 | -$2,796 |
| $324 (-5%) | -$831 | -$1,164 | -$1,631 | -$2,796 |
| $335 (-2%) | -$233 | -$568 | -$1,031 | -$1,836 |
| $341 (0%) โ spot | +$207 | -$121 | -$563 | -$1,153 |
| $348 (+2%) | +$677 | +$362 | -$47 | -$470 |
| $359 (+5%) | +$1,433 | +$1,146 | +$801 | +$554 |
| $375 (+10%) โ target | +$2,762 | +$2,531 | +$2,298 | +$2,204 |
| $393 (+15%) | +$4,300 | +$4,132 | +$3,997 | +$3,968 |
| $410 (+20%) | +$5,871 | +$5,756 | +$5,684 | +$5,676 |
Uses GOOG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.