Target Price Playground
GOOG
$341.43
๐ข
GOOG IV: 33.2% โ LOW
(-27.0% vs 30d avg of 45.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $395 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $340 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $21.36 ยท ฮ 0.55
LONG PUT ยท $340 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.0 ยท ฮ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GOOG hits $395 by Nov 20: the long straddle returns +$1,564 (39.7%) on $3,936 risked, vs +$5,357 (15.7%) for 100 shares on $34,143. Options give 2.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GOOG is at $395. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GOOG hits $395 by Nov 20
+$1,564
+39.7% on $3,936 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$3,936
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$379.36
+11.11% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
34%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
9.7 / -30.86 / 113.67
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GOOG Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $273 (-20%) | +$2,954 | +$2,770 | +$2,682 | +$2,750 |
| $290 (-15%) | +$1,783 | +$1,410 | +$1,083 | +$1,042 |
| $307 (-10%) | +$956 | +$388 | -$267 | -$665 |
| $324 (-5%) | +$533 | -$185 | -$1,131 | -$2,372 |
| $335 (-2%) | +$485 | -$286 | -$1,334 | -$3,396 |
| $341 (0%) โ spot | +$536 | -$251 | -$1,326 | -$3,793 |
| $348 (+2%) | +$654 | -$136 | -$1,205 | -$3,110 |
| $359 (+5%) | +$945 | +$175 | -$830 | -$2,086 |
| $376 (+10%) | +$1,707 | +$1,021 | +$216 | -$379 |
| $395 (+16%) โ target | +$2,919 | +$2,369 | +$1,823 | +$1,564 |
| $410 (+20%) | +$4,023 | +$3,578 | +$3,193 | +$3,036 |
Uses GOOG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.