Target Price Playground
GOOG
$341.43
๐ข
GOOG IV: 32.9% โ LOW
(-27.7% vs 30d avg of 45.5%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $370 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $341.43 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $370 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $9.8 ยท ฮ 0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GOOG hits $370 by Nov 20: the covered call returns +$3,837 (11.6%) on $33,163 risked, vs +$2,857 (8.4%) for 100 shares on $34,143. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GOOG is at $370. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GOOG hits $370 by Nov 20
+$3,837
+11.6% on $33,163 risked
Max Profit
+$3,837
If the stock โฅ $370 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$33,163
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$331.63
-2.87% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
61%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
67.39 / 14.57 / -53.12
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GOOG Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $273 (-20%) | -$5,925 | -$5,870 | -$5,850 | -$5,849 |
| $290 (-15%) | -$4,328 | -$4,213 | -$4,147 | -$4,141 |
| $307 (-10%) | -$2,830 | -$2,629 | -$2,469 | -$2,434 |
| $324 (-5%) | -$1,472 | -$1,172 | -$864 | -$727 |
| $335 (-2%) | -$739 | -$381 | +$27 | +$297 |
| $341 (0%) โ spot | -$287 | +$105 | +$578 | +$980 |
| $348 (+2%) | +$134 | +$555 | +$1,086 | +$1,663 |
| $359 (+5%) | +$706 | +$1,161 | +$1,758 | +$2,687 |
| $370 (+8%) โ target | +$1,265 | +$1,739 | +$2,373 | +$3,837 |
| $376 (+10%) | +$1,504 | +$1,982 | +$2,617 | +$3,837 |
| $393 (+15%) | +$2,120 | +$2,582 | +$3,167 | +$3,837 |
| $410 (+20%) | +$2,577 | +$2,995 | +$3,476 | +$3,837 |
Uses GOOG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.