Target Price Playground
GOOG
$355.03
๐ข
GOOG IV: 36.2% โ LOW
(-31.8% vs 30d avg of 53.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $385 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
69d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $355.03 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $385 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $10.6 ยท ฮ 0.34
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GOOG hits $385 by Sep 18: the covered call returns +$4,057 (11.8%) on $34,443 risked, vs +$2,997 (8.4%) for 100 shares on $35,503. Options give 1.4ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (69 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GOOG is at $385. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GOOG hits $385 by Sep 18
+$4,057
+11.8% on $34,443 risked
Max Profit
+$4,057
If the stock โฅ $385 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$34,443
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$344.43
-2.99% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
60%
IV-implied, 69d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
65.87 / 15.39 / -56.87
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GOOG Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $284 (-20%) | -$6,109 | -$6,058 | -$6,041 | -$6,041 |
| $302 (-15%) | -$4,438 | -$4,326 | -$4,270 | -$4,265 |
| $320 (-10%) | -$2,868 | -$2,666 | -$2,519 | -$2,490 |
| $337 (-5%) | -$1,442 | -$1,133 | -$838 | -$715 |
| $348 (-2%) | -$671 | -$299 | +$100 | +$350 |
| $355 (0%) โ spot | -$197 | +$212 | +$680 | +$1,060 |
| $362 (+2%) | +$244 | +$686 | +$1,216 | +$1,770 |
| $373 (+5%) | +$843 | +$1,323 | +$1,923 | +$2,835 |
| $385 (+8%) โ target | +$1,438 | +$1,940 | +$2,581 | +$4,057 |
| $391 (+10%) | +$1,676 | +$2,181 | +$2,824 | +$4,057 |
| $408 (+15%) | +$2,313 | +$2,801 | +$3,391 | +$4,057 |
| $426 (+20%) | +$2,782 | +$3,222 | +$3,703 | +$4,057 |
Uses GOOG's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.