Target Price Playground
GOOGL
$344.98
๐ข
GOOGL IV: 32.7% โ LOW
(-29.5% vs 30d avg of 46.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $305 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG PUT ยท $345 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.8 ยท ฮ -0.46
SHORT PUT ยท $315 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $7.8 ยท ฮ -0.24
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GOOGL hits $305 by Nov 20: the bear put spread returns +$1,900 (172.7%) on $1,100 risked, vs $-3,998 (-11.6%) for 100 shares on $34,498. Options give 14.9ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GOOGL is at $305. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GOOGL hits $305 by Nov 20
+$1,900
+172.7% on $1,100 risked
Max Profit
+$1,900
If the stock โค $315 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$1,100
Net debit
Break-even
$334.00
-3.18% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
48%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
-22.79 / -2.32 / 10.58
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GOOGL Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $276 (-20%) | +$1,479 | +$1,610 | +$1,791 | +$1,900 |
| $293 (-15%) | +$1,197 | +$1,324 | +$1,555 | +$1,900 |
| $305 (-12%) โ target | +$965 | +$1,065 | +$1,270 | +$1,900 |
| $310 (-10%) | +$849 | +$931 | +$1,104 | +$1,900 |
| $328 (-5%) | +$473 | +$480 | +$497 | +$627 |
| $338 (-2%) | +$250 | +$211 | +$123 | -$408 |
| $345 (0%) โ spot | +$108 | +$39 | -$108 | -$1,098 |
| $352 (+2%) | -$28 | -$121 | -$315 | -$1,100 |
| $362 (+5%) | -$217 | -$337 | -$573 | -$1,100 |
| $379 (+10%) | -$482 | -$624 | -$860 | -$1,100 |
| $397 (+15%) | -$686 | -$822 | -$1,005 | -$1,100 |
| $414 (+20%) | -$832 | -$947 | -$1,067 | -$1,100 |
Uses GOOGL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.