Target Price Playground
GOOGL
$344.98
๐ข
GOOGL IV: 32.7% โ LOW
(-29.5% vs 30d avg of 46.4%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $395 by Nov 20
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
๐ฏ Target
65d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG CALL ยท $345 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $21.48 ยท ฮ 0.54
LONG PUT ยท $345 ยท Nov '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $18.8 ยท ฮ -0.46
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GOOGL hits $395 by Nov 20: the long straddle returns +$972 (24.1%) on $4,028 risked, vs +$5,002 (14.5%) for 100 shares on $34,498. Options give 1.7ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Nov 20, 2026 (65 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GOOGL is at $395. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GOOGL hits $395 by Nov 20
+$972
+24.1% on $4,028 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
โ$4,028
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$304.72
-11.67% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
37%
IV-implied, 65d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
7.85 / -31.44 / 115.21
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GOOGL Price | Today | Oct 7 | Oct 29 | Nov 20 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $276 (-20%) | +$3,037 | +$2,870 | +$2,801 | +$2,874 |
| $293 (-15%) | +$1,824 | +$1,470 | +$1,170 | +$1,149 |
| $310 (-10%) | +$950 | +$397 | -$228 | -$576 |
| $328 (-5%) | +$483 | -$228 | -$1,157 | -$2,301 |
| $338 (-2%) | +$410 | -$358 | -$1,401 | -$3,336 |
| $345 (0%) โ spot | +$448 | -$341 | -$1,417 | -$4,026 |
| $352 (+2%) | +$552 | -$242 | -$1,319 | -$3,340 |
| $362 (+5%) | +$828 | +$51 | -$970 | -$2,305 |
| $379 (+10%) | +$1,573 | +$877 | +$51 | -$580 |
| $395 (+14%) โ target | +$2,499 | +$1,909 | +$1,293 | +$972 |
| $414 (+20%) | +$3,883 | +$3,429 | +$3,033 | +$2,870 |
Uses GOOGL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.