Target Price Playground
GOOGL
$357.18
๐ข
GOOGL IV: 36.5% โ LOW
(-33.4% vs 30d avg of 54.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $385 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
69d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $357.18 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $385 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $12.33 ยท ฮ 0.36
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If GOOGL hits $385 by Sep 18: the covered call returns +$4,015 (11.6%) on $34,485 risked, vs +$2,782 (7.8%) for 100 shares on $35,718. Options give 1.5ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (69 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if GOOGL is at $385. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if GOOGL hits $385 by Sep 18
+$4,015
+11.6% on $34,485 risked
Max Profit
+$4,015
If the stock โฅ $385 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$34,485
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$344.85
-3.45% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
63%
IV-implied, 69d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
64.31 / 16.06 / -56.89
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| GOOGL Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $286 (-20%) | -$5,990 | -$5,932 | -$5,912 | -$5,911 |
| $304 (-15%) | -$4,321 | -$4,197 | -$4,131 | -$4,125 |
| $321 (-10%) | -$2,759 | -$2,541 | -$2,376 | -$2,339 |
| $339 (-5%) | -$1,347 | -$1,021 | -$700 | -$553 |
| $350 (-2%) | -$588 | -$200 | +$227 | +$519 |
| $357 (0%) โ spot | -$122 | +$302 | +$796 | +$1,233 |
| $364 (+2%) | +$310 | +$766 | +$1,318 | +$1,947 |
| $375 (+5%) | +$896 | +$1,386 | +$2,003 | +$3,019 |
| $385 (+8%) โ target | +$1,373 | +$1,880 | +$2,526 | +$4,015 |
| $393 (+10%) | +$1,707 | +$2,216 | +$2,862 | +$4,015 |
| $411 (+15%) | +$2,325 | +$2,812 | +$3,396 | +$4,015 |
| $429 (+20%) | +$2,778 | +$3,213 | +$3,683 | +$4,015 |
Uses GOOGL's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.