Target Price Playground
INTU
$341.09
🟢
INTU IV: 48.7% — LOW
(-39.8% vs 30d avg of 80.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $300 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $340 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $26.7 · Δ -0.45
SHORT PUT · $315 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $12.9 · Δ -0.29
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If INTU hits $300 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$1,120 (81.2%) on $1,380 risked, vs $-4,109 (-12.0%) for 100 shares on $34,109. Options give 6.8× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if INTU is at $300. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if INTU hits $300 by Dec 18
+$1,120
+81.2% on $1,380 risked
Max Profit
+$1,120
If the stock ≤ $315 at expiry
Max Loss
−$1,380
Net debit
Break-even
$326.20
-4.36% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
52%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-16.17 / -4.71 / 6.57
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| INTU Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $273 (-20%) | +$728 | +$838 | +$1,001 | +$1,120 |
| $290 (-15%) | +$509 | +$609 | +$797 | +$1,120 |
| $300 (-12%) ← target | +$361 | +$441 | +$607 | +$1,120 |
| $307 (-10%) | +$252 | +$313 | +$447 | +$1,120 |
| $324 (-5%) | -$22 | -$19 | -$4 | +$216 |
| $334 (-2%) | -$185 | -$218 | -$284 | -$807 |
| $341 (0%) ← spot | -$291 | -$347 | -$460 | -$1,380 |
| $348 (+2%) | -$393 | -$469 | -$624 | -$1,380 |
| $358 (+5%) | -$537 | -$638 | -$835 | -$1,380 |
| $375 (+10%) | -$748 | -$875 | -$1,093 | -$1,380 |
| $392 (+15%) | -$921 | -$1,053 | -$1,244 | -$1,380 |
| $409 (+20%) | -$1,055 | -$1,177 | -$1,322 | -$1,380 |
Uses INTU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.