Target Price Playground
INTU
$341.09
🟢
INTU IV: 48.7% — LOW
(-39.8% vs 30d avg of 80.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $325 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $340 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $31.3 · Δ -0.44
SHORT PUT · $325 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $16.78 · Δ -0.35
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If INTU hits $325 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$1,184 (81.6%) on $1,452 risked, vs $-1,609 (-4.7%) for 100 shares on $34,109. Options give 17.4× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if INTU is at $325. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if INTU hits $325 by Dec 18
+$1,184
+81.6% on $1,452 risked
Max Profit
+$1,141
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$1,393
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$349.34
+2.42% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
80%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-9.32 / 3.26 / 15.28
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| INTU Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $273 (-20%) | +$90 | +$137 | +$160 | +$54 |
| $290 (-15%) | +$89 | +$173 | +$278 | +$244 |
| $307 (-10%) | +$47 | +$156 | +$335 | +$599 |
| $325 (-5%) ← target | -$45 | +$65 | +$264 | +$1,210 |
| $334 (-2%) | -$109 | -$9 | +$170 | +$702 |
| $341 (0%) ← spot | -$162 | -$74 | +$79 | +$374 |
| $348 (+2%) | -$219 | -$146 | -$25 | +$84 |
| $358 (+5%) | -$311 | -$263 | -$198 | -$285 |
| $375 (+10%) | -$474 | -$470 | -$497 | -$741 |
| $392 (+15%) | -$636 | -$672 | -$768 | -$1,038 |
| $409 (+20%) | -$789 | -$855 | -$986 | -$1,221 |
Uses INTU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.