Target Price Playground
INTU
$341.09
🟢
INTU IV: 48.7% — LOW
(-39.8% vs 30d avg of 80.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $300 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $340 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $26.7 · Δ -0.45
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If INTU hits $300 by Dec 18: the long put returns +$1,330 (49.8%) on $2,670 risked, vs $-4,109 (-12.0%) for 100 shares on $34,109. Options give 4.1× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if INTU is at $300. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if INTU hits $300 by Dec 18
+$1,330
+49.8% on $2,670 risked
Max Profit
+$31,330
If stock → $0
Max Loss
−$2,670
Premium paid
Break-even
$313.30
-8.15% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
52%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-45.27 / -26.13 / 48.98
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| INTU Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $273 (-20%) | +$4,199 | +$4,074 | +$4,003 | +$4,043 |
| $290 (-15%) | +$2,815 | +$2,589 | +$2,380 | +$2,337 |
| $300 (-12%) ← target | +$2,073 | +$1,788 | +$1,481 | +$1,330 |
| $307 (-10%) | +$1,595 | +$1,272 | +$898 | +$632 |
| $324 (-5%) | +$558 | +$162 | -$348 | -$1,074 |
| $334 (-2%) | +$26 | -$394 | -$952 | -$2,097 |
| $341 (0%) ← spot | -$290 | -$719 | -$1,291 | -$2,670 |
| $348 (+2%) | -$579 | -$1,009 | -$1,579 | -$2,670 |
| $358 (+5%) | -$960 | -$1,382 | -$1,925 | -$2,670 |
| $375 (+10%) | -$1,470 | -$1,853 | -$2,304 | -$2,670 |
| $392 (+15%) | -$1,846 | -$2,172 | -$2,506 | -$2,670 |
| $409 (+20%) | -$2,117 | -$2,377 | -$2,603 | -$2,670 |
Uses INTU's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.