Target Price Playground
KLAC
$197.46
🟢
KLAC IV: 51.1% — LOW
(-35.8% vs 30d avg of 79.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $175 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $195 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $18.2 · Δ -0.43
SHORT PUT · $180 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $11.3 · Δ -0.31
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If KLAC hits $175 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$810 (117.4%) on $690 risked, vs $-2,246 (-11.4%) for 100 shares on $19,746. Options give 10.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if KLAC is at $175. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if KLAC hits $175 by Dec 18
+$810
+117.4% on $690 risked
Max Profit
+$810
If the stock ≤ $180 at expiry
Max Loss
−$690
Net debit
Break-even
$188.10
-4.74% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
62%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-11.88 / -0.77 / 1.42
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| KLAC Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $158 (-20%) | +$489 | +$553 | +$665 | +$810 |
| $168 (-15%) | +$366 | +$415 | +$516 | +$810 |
| $175 (-11%) ← target | +$270 | +$301 | +$372 | +$810 |
| $178 (-10%) | +$233 | +$256 | +$312 | +$810 |
| $188 (-5%) | +$96 | +$90 | +$80 | +$51 |
| $194 (-2%) | +$16 | -$8 | -$57 | -$541 |
| $197 (0%) ← spot | -$35 | -$71 | -$143 | -$690 |
| $201 (+2%) | -$85 | -$131 | -$224 | -$690 |
| $207 (+5%) | -$157 | -$215 | -$331 | -$690 |
| $217 (+10%) | -$264 | -$338 | -$471 | -$690 |
| $227 (+15%) | -$356 | -$437 | -$566 | -$690 |
| $237 (+20%) | -$432 | -$513 | -$623 | -$690 |
Uses KLAC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.