Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
KLAC
$197.46
🟢
KLAC IV: 51.1% — LOW (-35.8% vs 30d avg of 79.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $205 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

📋 Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

🎯 Target

72d from today

⚙️ Legs

SHORT PUT · $180 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $11.3 · Δ -0.31
P&L at Expiry Now $197 Target $205 $138 $197 $257
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target

If KLAC hits $205 by Dec 18: the cash-secured put returns +$1,130 (6.7%) on $-1,130 credit (max loss $16,870), vs +$754 (3.8%) for 100 shares on $19,746. Options give 1.8× capital efficiency.

📅 Expiry

Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if KLAC is at $205. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

📊 Projected Return

P&L if KLAC hits $205 by Dec 18
+$1,130
+6.7% on $16,870 max loss
Max Profit
+$1,130
If the stock ≥ $180 at expiry
Max Loss
−$16,870
If stock → $0 after assignment
Break-even
$168.70
-14.56% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
87%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
30.82 / 12.33 / -32.82
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
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📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates

KLAC Price Today Oct 31 Nov 24 Dec 18 (exp)
$158 (-20%) -$1,637 -$1,442 -$1,219 -$1,073
$168 (-15%) -$1,034 -$793 -$483 -$86
$178 (-10%) -$531 -$263 +$97 +$901
$188 (-5%) -$121 +$152 +$514 +$1,130
$194 (-2%) +$82 +$350 +$693 +$1,130
$197 (0%) ← spot +$202 +$463 +$787 +$1,130
$201 (+2%) +$311 +$562 +$864 +$1,130
$205 (+4%) ← target +$400 +$641 +$921 +$1,130
$207 (+5%) +$453 +$687 +$951 +$1,130
$217 (+10%) +$643 +$843 +$1,043 +$1,130
$227 (+15%) +$783 +$948 +$1,090 +$1,130
$237 (+20%) +$886 +$1,017 +$1,112 +$1,130
Uses KLAC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.