Target Price Playground
KLAC
$197.46
🟢
KLAC IV: 51.1% — LOW
(-35.8% vs 30d avg of 79.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $190 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $195 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $20.3 · Δ -0.42
SHORT PUT · $190 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $15.0 · Δ -0.39
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If KLAC hits $190 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$835 (157.5%) on $530 risked, vs $-746 (-3.8%) for 100 shares on $19,746. Options give 41.4× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if KLAC is at $190. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if KLAC hits $190 by Dec 18
+$835
+157.5% on $530 risked
Max Profit
+$832
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$491
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$211.52
+7.12% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
87%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-3.6 / 1.79 / 6.32
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| KLAC Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $158 (-20%) | +$29 | +$55 | +$71 | -$15 |
| $168 (-15%) | +$41 | +$83 | +$141 | +$108 |
| $178 (-10%) | +$38 | +$93 | +$187 | +$333 |
| $188 (-5%) | +$22 | +$79 | +$188 | +$687 |
| $190 (-4%) ← target | +$15 | +$73 | +$181 | +$795 |
| $194 (-2%) | +$5 | +$60 | +$165 | +$617 |
| $197 (0%) ← spot | -$8 | +$44 | +$141 | +$437 |
| $201 (+2%) | -$23 | +$24 | +$110 | +$279 |
| $207 (+5%) | -$49 | -$10 | +$54 | +$80 |
| $217 (+10%) | -$96 | -$74 | -$52 | -$164 |
| $227 (+15%) | -$147 | -$143 | -$160 | -$320 |
| $237 (+20%) | -$199 | -$211 | -$257 | -$414 |
Uses KLAC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.