Target Price Playground
KLAC
$197.46
🟢
KLAC IV: 51.1% — LOW
(-35.8% vs 30d avg of 79.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $220 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $195 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $22.2 · Δ 0.57
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If KLAC hits $220 by Dec 18: the long call returns +$280 (12.6%) on $2,220 risked, vs +$2,254 (11.4%) for 100 shares on $19,746. Options give 1.1× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if KLAC is at $220. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if KLAC hits $220 by Dec 18
+$280
+12.6% on $2,220 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
−$2,220
Premium paid
Break-even
$217.20
+10.0% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
62%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
57.0 / -14.08 / 34.21
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| KLAC Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $158 (-20%) | -$1,804 | -$1,993 | -$2,162 | -$2,220 |
| $168 (-15%) | -$1,543 | -$1,793 | -$2,059 | -$2,220 |
| $178 (-10%) | -$1,193 | -$1,495 | -$1,856 | -$2,220 |
| $188 (-5%) | -$751 | -$1,089 | -$1,517 | -$2,220 |
| $194 (-2%) | -$443 | -$792 | -$1,241 | -$2,220 |
| $197 (0%) ← spot | -$219 | -$573 | -$1,027 | -$1,974 |
| $201 (+2%) | +$17 | -$337 | -$789 | -$1,579 |
| $207 (+5%) | +$396 | +$45 | -$392 | -$987 |
| $217 (+10%) | +$1,087 | +$755 | +$365 | +$1 |
| $220 (+11%) ← target | +$1,294 | +$969 | +$596 | +$280 |
| $227 (+15%) | +$1,841 | +$1,538 | +$1,210 | +$988 |
| $237 (+20%) | +$2,649 | +$2,380 | +$2,117 | +$1,975 |
Uses KLAC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.