Target Price Playground
KLAC
$197.46
🟢
KLAC IV: 51.1% — LOW
(-35.8% vs 30d avg of 79.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $215 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $197.46 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $190 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $15.0 · Δ -0.39
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If KLAC hits $215 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$254 (1.2%) on $21,246 risked, vs +$1,754 (8.9%) for 100 shares on $19,746. Options give 0.1× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if KLAC is at $215. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if KLAC hits $215 by Dec 18
+$254
+1.2% on $21,246 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$2,246
Put floors you at $190
Break-even
$212.46
+7.6% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
70%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
61.4 / -12.39 / 33.78
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| KLAC Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $158 (-20%) | -$1,911 | -$2,065 | -$2,213 | -$2,246 |
| $168 (-15%) | -$1,613 | -$1,825 | -$2,071 | -$2,246 |
| $178 (-10%) | -$1,221 | -$1,478 | -$1,809 | -$2,246 |
| $188 (-5%) | -$734 | -$1,017 | -$1,397 | -$2,246 |
| $194 (-2%) | -$399 | -$688 | -$1,075 | -$1,895 |
| $197 (0%) ← spot | -$159 | -$448 | -$830 | -$1,500 |
| $201 (+2%) | +$95 | -$191 | -$564 | -$1,105 |
| $207 (+5%) | +$498 | +$221 | -$127 | -$513 |
| $215 (+9%) ← target | +$1,058 | +$799 | +$496 | +$254 |
| $217 (+10%) | +$1,227 | +$974 | +$685 | +$475 |
| $227 (+15%) | +$2,014 | +$1,794 | +$1,570 | +$1,462 |
| $237 (+20%) | +$2,850 | +$2,666 | +$2,501 | +$2,449 |
Uses KLAC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.