Target Price Playground
KLAC
$197.46
🟢
KLAC IV: 51.1% — LOW
(-35.8% vs 30d avg of 79.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $225 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $195 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $22.2 · Δ 0.57
LONG PUT · $195 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $18.2 · Δ -0.43
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If KLAC hits $225 by Dec 18: the long straddle returns $-1,040 (-25.7%) on $4,040 risked, vs +$2,754 (13.9%) for 100 shares on $19,746. Options give 1.8× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if KLAC is at $225. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if KLAC hits $225 by Dec 18
$-1,040
-25.7% on $4,040 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
−$4,040
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$235.40
+19.21% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
54%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
14.3 / -27.18 / 68.46
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| KLAC Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $158 (-20%) | +$323 | +$3 | -$279 | -$337 |
| $168 (-15%) | -$142 | -$584 | -$1,061 | -$1,324 |
| $178 (-10%) | -$430 | -$976 | -$1,641 | -$2,311 |
| $188 (-5%) | -$534 | -$1,151 | -$1,950 | -$3,299 |
| $194 (-2%) | -$509 | -$1,150 | -$1,991 | -$3,891 |
| $197 (0%) ← spot | -$457 | -$1,107 | -$1,957 | -$3,794 |
| $201 (+2%) | -$379 | -$1,030 | -$1,877 | -$3,399 |
| $207 (+5%) | -$214 | -$857 | -$1,675 | -$2,807 |
| $217 (+10%) | +$180 | -$427 | -$1,150 | -$1,819 |
| $225 (+14%) ← target | +$582 | +$20 | -$605 | -$1,040 |
| $227 (+15%) | +$702 | +$153 | -$445 | -$832 |
| $237 (+20%) | +$1,330 | +$850 | +$381 | +$155 |
Uses KLAC's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.