Target Price Playground
MCHP
$77.34
🟢
MCHP IV: 48.4% — LOW
(-43.5% vs 30d avg of 85.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $68 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $77 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $5.42 · Δ -0.44
SHORT PUT · $71 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $2.84 · Δ -0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If MCHP hits $68 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$342 (132.5%) on $258 risked, vs $-934 (-12.1%) for 100 shares on $7,734. Options give 11.0× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MCHP is at $68. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if MCHP hits $68 by Dec 18
+$342
+132.5% on $258 risked
Max Profit
+$342
If the stock ≤ $71 at expiry
Max Loss
−$258
Net debit
Break-even
$74.42
-3.78% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
52%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-15.88 / -0.68 / 1.59
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| MCHP Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $62 (-20%) | +$244 | +$270 | +$310 | +$342 |
| $66 (-15%) | +$191 | +$214 | +$258 | +$342 |
| $68 (-12%) ← target | +$155 | +$174 | +$212 | +$342 |
| $70 (-10%) | +$129 | +$143 | +$173 | +$342 |
| $73 (-5%) | +$64 | +$64 | +$65 | +$95 |
| $76 (-2%) | +$25 | +$16 | -$1 | -$137 |
| $77 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | -$14 | -$43 | -$258 |
| $79 (+2%) | -$24 | -$43 | -$81 | -$258 |
| $81 (+5%) | -$58 | -$83 | -$131 | -$258 |
| $85 (+10%) | -$108 | -$138 | -$191 | -$258 |
| $89 (+15%) | -$148 | -$180 | -$226 | -$258 |
| $93 (+20%) | -$180 | -$210 | -$244 | -$258 |
Uses MCHP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.