Target Price Playground
MCHP
$77.34
🟢
MCHP IV: 49.8% — LOW
(-41.8% vs 30d avg of 85.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $87 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $77 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $6.21 · Δ 0.56
SHORT CALL · $84 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.48 · Δ 0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If MCHP hits $87 by Dec 18: the bull call spread returns +$426 (155.8%) on $274 risked, vs +$966 (12.5%) for 100 shares on $7,734. Options give 12.5× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MCHP is at $87. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if MCHP hits $87 by Dec 18
+$426
+155.8% on $274 risked
Max Profit
+$426
If the stock ≥ $84 at expiry
Max Loss
−$274
Net debit
Break-even
$79.74
+3.1% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
51%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
18.1 / -0.36 / 0.4
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| MCHP Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $62 (-20%) | -$221 | -$244 | -$267 | -$273 |
| $66 (-15%) | -$182 | -$210 | -$250 | -$273 |
| $70 (-10%) | -$130 | -$158 | -$209 | -$273 |
| $73 (-5%) | -$68 | -$89 | -$134 | -$273 |
| $76 (-2%) | -$27 | -$41 | -$74 | -$273 |
| $77 (0%) ← spot | +$1 | -$8 | -$30 | -$239 |
| $79 (+2%) | +$29 | +$26 | +$17 | -$84 |
| $81 (+5%) | +$71 | +$78 | +$89 | +$148 |
| $85 (+10%) | +$138 | +$159 | +$200 | +$427 |
| $87 (+12%) ← target | +$169 | +$196 | +$247 | +$427 |
| $89 (+15%) | +$198 | +$230 | +$288 | +$427 |
| $93 (+20%) | +$251 | +$288 | +$350 | +$427 |
Uses MCHP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.