Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
MCHP
$77.34
🟢
MCHP IV: 49.8% — LOW (-41.8% vs 30d avg of 85.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $81 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

📋 Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

🎯 Target

48d from today

⚙️ Legs

SHORT PUT · $71 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $2.84 · Δ -0.28
P&L at Expiry Now $77 Target $81 $54 $77 $101
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target

If MCHP hits $81 by Dec 18: the cash-secured put returns +$284 (4.2%) on $-284 credit (max loss $6,816), vs +$366 (4.7%) for 100 shares on $7,734. Options give 0.9× capital efficiency.

📅 Expiry

Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MCHP is at $81. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

📊 Projected Return

P&L if MCHP hits $81 by Dec 18
+$284
+4.2% on $6,816 max loss
Max Profit
+$284
If the stock ≥ $71 at expiry
Max Loss
−$6,816
If stock → $0 after assignment
Break-even
$68.16
-11.87% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
80%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
28.19 / 4.85 / -9.47
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
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📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates

MCHP Price Today Nov 16 Dec 2 Dec 18 (exp)
$62 (-20%) -$767 -$711 -$652 -$629
$66 (-15%) -$508 -$432 -$337 -$242
$70 (-10%) -$295 -$206 -$89 +$145
$73 (-5%) -$127 -$37 +$83 +$284
$76 (-2%) -$46 +$41 +$152 +$284
$77 (0%) ← spot +$0 +$84 +$187 +$284
$79 (+2%) +$41 +$121 +$213 +$284
$81 (+5%) ← target +$89 +$162 +$240 +$284
$85 (+10%) +$159 +$216 +$267 +$284
$89 (+15%) +$203 +$247 +$278 +$284
$93 (+20%) +$233 +$264 +$282 +$284
Uses MCHP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.