Target Price Playground
MCHP
$77.34
🟢
MCHP IV: 48.4% — LOW
(-43.5% vs 30d avg of 85.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $84 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $77.34 · Δ 1.00
SHORT CALL · $84 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.48 · Δ 0.38
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If MCHP hits $84 by Dec 18: the covered call returns +$1,014 (13.7%) on $7,386 risked, vs +$666 (8.6%) for 100 shares on $7,734. Options give 1.6× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MCHP is at $84. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if MCHP hits $84 by Dec 18
+$1,014
+13.7% on $7,386 risked
Max Profit
+$1,014
If the stock ≥ $84 at expiry
Max Loss
−$7,386
If stock → $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$73.86
-4.5% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
65%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
62.17 / 6.12 / -10.66
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| MCHP Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $62 (-20%) | -$1,232 | -$1,210 | -$1,200 | -$1,199 |
| $66 (-15%) | -$881 | -$841 | -$816 | -$812 |
| $70 (-10%) | -$554 | -$493 | -$440 | -$425 |
| $73 (-5%) | -$259 | -$175 | -$87 | -$39 |
| $76 (-2%) | -$99 | -$2 | +$109 | +$193 |
| $77 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | +$105 | +$230 | +$348 |
| $79 (+2%) | +$93 | +$205 | +$342 | +$503 |
| $81 (+5%) | +$221 | +$340 | +$491 | +$735 |
| $84 (+9%) ← target | +$357 | +$480 | +$640 | +$1,014 |
| $85 (+10%) | +$403 | +$528 | +$687 | +$1,014 |
| $89 (+15%) | +$550 | +$671 | +$822 | +$1,014 |
| $93 (+20%) | +$664 | +$776 | +$906 | +$1,014 |
Uses MCHP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.