Target Price Playground
MCHP
$77.34
🟢
MCHP IV: 49.8% — LOW
(-41.8% vs 30d avg of 85.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $73 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $77 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $6.77 · Δ -0.43
SHORT PUT · $73 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.59 · Δ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If MCHP hits $73 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$326 (102.2%) on $318 risked, vs $-434 (-5.6%) for 100 shares on $7,734. Options give 18.2× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MCHP is at $73. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if MCHP hits $73 by Dec 18
+$326
+102.2% on $318 risked
Max Profit
+$314
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$303
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$79.70
+3.05% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
77%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-9.64 / 0.92 / 3.66
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| MCHP Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $62 (-20%) | +$82 | +$96 | +$106 | +$85 |
| $66 (-15%) | +$76 | +$98 | +$127 | +$130 |
| $70 (-10%) | +$61 | +$87 | +$131 | +$213 |
| $73 (-6%) ← target | +$38 | +$64 | +$109 | +$326 |
| $76 (-2%) | +$15 | +$36 | +$75 | +$171 |
| $77 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | +$19 | +$50 | +$97 |
| $79 (+2%) | -$15 | -$0 | +$23 | +$31 |
| $81 (+5%) | -$39 | -$30 | -$21 | -$52 |
| $85 (+10%) | -$80 | -$82 | -$93 | -$155 |
| $89 (+15%) | -$121 | -$132 | -$158 | -$222 |
| $93 (+20%) | -$158 | -$176 | -$209 | -$264 |
Uses MCHP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.