Target Price Playground
MCHP
$77.34
🟢
MCHP IV: 48.4% — LOW
(-43.5% vs 30d avg of 85.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $87 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $77 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $6.21 · Δ 0.56
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If MCHP hits $87 by Dec 18: the long call returns +$379 (60.9%) on $621 risked, vs +$966 (12.5%) for 100 shares on $7,734. Options give 4.9× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MCHP is at $87. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if MCHP hits $87 by Dec 18
+$379
+60.9% on $621 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
−$621
Premium paid
Break-even
$83.21
+7.6% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
51%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
55.93 / -6.48 / 11.07
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| MCHP Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $62 (-20%) | -$536 | -$581 | -$614 | -$621 |
| $66 (-15%) | -$461 | -$529 | -$594 | -$621 |
| $70 (-10%) | -$349 | -$439 | -$541 | -$621 |
| $73 (-5%) | -$195 | -$302 | -$435 | -$621 |
| $76 (-2%) | -$83 | -$195 | -$338 | -$621 |
| $77 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | -$113 | -$259 | -$587 |
| $79 (+2%) | +$90 | -$24 | -$169 | -$432 |
| $81 (+5%) | +$236 | +$124 | -$15 | -$200 |
| $85 (+10%) | +$507 | +$404 | +$285 | +$186 |
| $87 (+12%) ← target | +$654 | +$557 | +$451 | +$379 |
| $89 (+15%) | +$809 | +$719 | +$626 | +$573 |
| $93 (+20%) | +$1,134 | +$1,059 | +$991 | +$960 |
Uses MCHP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.