Target Price Playground
MCHP
$77.34
🟢
MCHP IV: 48.4% — LOW
(-43.5% vs 30d avg of 85.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $68 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bearish. Max profit if underlying crashes, capped loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $77 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $5.42 · Δ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If MCHP hits $68 by Dec 18: the long put returns +$358 (66.1%) on $542 risked, vs $-934 (-12.1%) for 100 shares on $7,734. Options give 5.5× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MCHP is at $68. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if MCHP hits $68 by Dec 18
+$358
+66.1% on $542 risked
Max Profit
+$7,158
If stock → $0
Max Loss
−$542
Premium paid
Break-even
$71.58
-7.45% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
52%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-44.07 / -5.54 / 11.07
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| MCHP Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $62 (-20%) | +$1,011 | +$981 | +$963 | +$971 |
| $66 (-15%) | +$699 | +$646 | +$596 | +$584 |
| $68 (-12%) ← target | +$534 | +$467 | +$395 | +$358 |
| $70 (-10%) | +$424 | +$349 | +$262 | +$197 |
| $73 (-5%) | +$191 | +$100 | -$18 | -$189 |
| $76 (-2%) | +$72 | -$25 | -$153 | -$421 |
| $77 (0%) ← spot | -$0 | -$99 | -$230 | -$542 |
| $79 (+2%) | -$65 | -$164 | -$295 | -$542 |
| $81 (+5%) | -$151 | -$248 | -$372 | -$542 |
| $85 (+10%) | -$266 | -$354 | -$458 | -$542 |
| $89 (+15%) | -$352 | -$427 | -$504 | -$542 |
| $93 (+20%) | -$413 | -$474 | -$526 | -$542 |
Uses MCHP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.