Target Price Playground
MCHP
$77.34
🟢
MCHP IV: 48.4% — LOW
(-43.5% vs 30d avg of 85.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $85 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock + buy put as insurance against downside.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $77.34 · Δ 1.00
LONG PUT · $73 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.59 · Δ -0.33
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Protective Put
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If MCHP hits $85 by Dec 18: the protective put returns +$407 (5.0%) on $8,093 risked, vs +$766 (9.9%) for 100 shares on $7,734. Options give 0.5× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MCHP is at $85. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if MCHP hits $85 by Dec 18
+$407
+5.0% on $8,093 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside (minus put cost)
Max Loss
−$793
Put floors you at $73
Break-even
$80.93
+4.64% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
60%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
66.67 / -5.19 / 10.2
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| MCHP Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $62 (-20%) | -$695 | -$742 | -$786 | -$793 |
| $66 (-15%) | -$586 | -$656 | -$737 | -$793 |
| $70 (-10%) | -$435 | -$521 | -$632 | -$793 |
| $73 (-5%) | -$239 | -$332 | -$457 | -$746 |
| $76 (-2%) | -$100 | -$194 | -$316 | -$514 |
| $77 (0%) ← spot | -$0 | -$91 | -$208 | -$359 |
| $79 (+2%) | +$106 | +$18 | -$91 | -$204 |
| $81 (+5%) | +$275 | +$194 | +$99 | +$28 |
| $85 (+10%) ← target | +$575 | +$506 | +$438 | +$407 |
| $89 (+15%) | +$911 | +$857 | +$813 | +$801 |
| $93 (+20%) | +$1,259 | +$1,219 | +$1,192 | +$1,188 |
Uses MCHP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.