Target Price Playground
MCHP
$77.34
🟢
MCHP IV: 49.8% — LOW
(-41.8% vs 30d avg of 85.6%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $89 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bet on big move in either direction. Two premiums paid.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $77 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $6.21 · Δ 0.56
LONG PUT · $77 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $5.42 · Δ -0.44
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Straddle
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If MCHP hits $89 by Dec 18: the long straddle returns +$37 (3.1%) on $1,163 risked, vs +$1,166 (15.1%) for 100 shares on $7,734. Options give 0.2× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MCHP is at $89. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if MCHP hits $89 by Dec 18
+$37
+3.1% on $1,163 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited on a big move
Max Loss
−$1,163
Both premiums paid
Break-even
$88.63
+14.6% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
43%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
11.86 / -12.02 / 22.13
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| MCHP Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $62 (-20%) | +$475 | +$400 | +$348 | +$350 |
| $66 (-15%) | +$238 | +$117 | +$2 | -$37 |
| $70 (-10%) | +$76 | -$90 | -$280 | -$424 |
| $73 (-5%) | -$4 | -$202 | -$453 | -$810 |
| $76 (-2%) | -$11 | -$220 | -$492 | -$1,042 |
| $77 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | -$212 | -$489 | -$1,129 |
| $79 (+2%) | +$25 | -$188 | -$464 | -$974 |
| $81 (+5%) | +$85 | -$124 | -$388 | -$742 |
| $85 (+10%) | +$241 | +$50 | -$173 | -$356 |
| $89 (+15%) ← target | +$461 | +$296 | +$127 | +$37 |
| $93 (+20%) | +$721 | +$585 | +$465 | +$418 |
Uses MCHP's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.