Target Price Playground
MSFT
$529.30
🟢
MSFT IV: 30.4% — LOW
(-27.4% vs 30d avg of 41.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $590 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $530 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $28.65 · Δ 0.54
SHORT CALL · $570 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $12.96 · Δ 0.32
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If MSFT hits $590 by Dec 18: the bull call spread returns +$2,431 (154.9%) on $1,569 risked, vs +$6,070 (11.5%) for 100 shares on $52,930. Options give 13.5× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSFT is at $590. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if MSFT hits $590 by Dec 18
+$2,431
+154.9% on $1,569 risked
Max Profit
+$2,431
If the stock ≥ $570 at expiry
Max Loss
−$1,569
Net debit
Break-even
$545.69
+3.1% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
40%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
22.39 / -3.72 / 6.22
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| MSFT Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $423 (-20%) | -$1,456 | -$1,528 | -$1,566 | -$1,569 |
| $450 (-15%) | -$1,284 | -$1,419 | -$1,542 | -$1,569 |
| $476 (-10%) | -$983 | -$1,165 | -$1,415 | -$1,569 |
| $503 (-5%) | -$550 | -$719 | -$1,030 | -$1,569 |
| $519 (-2%) | -$242 | -$368 | -$628 | -$1,569 |
| $529 (0%) ← spot | -$24 | -$110 | -$297 | -$1,569 |
| $540 (+2%) | +$199 | +$160 | +$67 | -$580 |
| $556 (+5%) | +$531 | +$565 | +$630 | +$1,007 |
| $582 (+10%) | +$1,048 | +$1,186 | +$1,456 | +$2,431 |
| $590 (+11%) ← target | +$1,185 | +$1,345 | +$1,647 | +$2,431 |
| $609 (+15%) | +$1,480 | +$1,673 | +$1,997 | +$2,431 |
| $635 (+20%) | +$1,809 | +$2,005 | +$2,267 | +$2,431 |
Uses MSFT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.