Target Price Playground
MSFT
$529.30
🟢
MSFT IV: 30.4% — LOW
(-27.4% vs 30d avg of 41.9%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $590 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Bullish. Unlimited upside, capped loss = premium paid.
🎯 Target
72d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $530 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $28.65 · Δ 0.54
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Long Call
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If MSFT hits $590 by Dec 18: the long call returns +$3,135 (109.4%) on $2,865 risked, vs +$6,070 (11.5%) for 100 shares on $52,930. Options give 9.5× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (72 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSFT is at $590. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if MSFT hits $590 by Dec 18
+$3,135
+109.4% on $2,865 risked
Max Profit
Unlimited
Unlimited upside
Max Loss
−$2,865
Premium paid
Break-even
$558.65
+5.55% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
40%
IV-implied, 72d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
54.1 / -21.31 / 93.02
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| MSFT Price | Today | Oct 31 | Nov 24 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $423 (-20%) | -$2,711 | -$2,817 | -$2,862 | -$2,865 |
| $450 (-15%) | -$2,447 | -$2,677 | -$2,837 | -$2,865 |
| $476 (-10%) | -$1,926 | -$2,315 | -$2,694 | -$2,865 |
| $503 (-5%) | -$1,061 | -$1,590 | -$2,219 | -$2,865 |
| $519 (-2%) | -$354 | -$937 | -$1,667 | -$2,865 |
| $529 (0%) ← spot | +$196 | -$404 | -$1,166 | -$2,865 |
| $540 (+2%) | +$808 | +$203 | -$558 | -$1,876 |
| $556 (+5%) | +$1,834 | +$1,247 | +$537 | -$289 |
| $582 (+10%) | +$3,800 | +$3,287 | +$2,742 | +$2,358 |
| $590 (+11%) ← target | +$4,428 | +$3,944 | +$3,451 | +$3,135 |
| $609 (+15%) | +$6,016 | +$5,602 | +$5,224 | +$5,004 |
| $635 (+20%) | +$8,409 | +$8,086 | +$7,822 | +$7,651 |
Uses MSFT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.