Target Price Playground
MSFT
$385.10
๐ข
MSFT IV: 34.6% โ LOW
(-32.0% vs 30d avg of 51.0%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg โ good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $415 by Sep 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
๐ Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Own stock, sell OTM call for income. Caps upside.
๐ฏ Target
69d from today
โ๏ธ Legs
LONG 100 SHARES
@ $385.1 ยท ฮ 1.00
SHORT CALL ยท $415 ยท Sep '26
Qty 1 ยท Premium $15.68 ยท ฮ 0.37
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Covered Call
Now
Target
๐ก Stock vs Options at Target
If MSFT hits $415 by Sep 18: the covered call returns +$4,558 (12.3%) on $36,942 risked, vs +$2,990 (7.8%) for 100 shares on $38,510. Options give 1.6ร capital efficiency.
๐ Expiry
Options expire Sep 18, 2026 (69 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if MSFT is at $415. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
๐ Projected Return
P&L if MSFT hits $415 by Sep 18
+$4,558
+12.3% on $36,942 risked
Max Profit
+$4,558
If the stock โฅ $415 at expiry
Max Loss
โ$36,942
If stock โ $0 (minus premium received)
Break-even
$369.42
-4.07% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
61%
IV-implied, 69d (rough)
Net ฮ / ฮ / V
62.66 / 18.99 / -60.81
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
๐ Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode โ ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score โฅ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
๐ P&L Scenarios โ what happens at different prices and dates
| MSFT Price | Today | Aug 3 | Aug 26 | Sep 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $308 (-20%) | -$6,197 | -$6,149 | -$6,134 | -$6,134 |
| $327 (-15%) | -$4,378 | -$4,267 | -$4,212 | -$4,208 |
| $347 (-10%) | -$2,669 | -$2,461 | -$2,312 | -$2,283 |
| $366 (-5%) | -$1,120 | -$796 | -$487 | -$357 |
| $377 (-2%) | -$287 | +$104 | +$526 | +$798 |
| $385 (0%) โ spot | +$223 | +$654 | +$1,150 | +$1,568 |
| $393 (+2%) | +$695 | +$1,161 | +$1,722 | +$2,338 |
| $404 (+5%) | +$1,333 | +$1,837 | +$2,469 | +$3,494 |
| $415 (+8%) โ target | +$1,845 | +$2,366 | +$3,031 | +$4,558 |
| $424 (+10%) | +$2,208 | +$2,732 | +$3,396 | +$4,558 |
| $443 (+15%) | +$2,864 | +$3,362 | +$3,954 | +$4,558 |
| $462 (+20%) | +$3,335 | +$3,775 | +$4,241 | +$4,558 |
Uses MSFT's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.