Target Price Playground
ORLY
$88.12
🟢
ORLY IV: 25.9% — LOW
(-33.8% vs 30d avg of 39.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $78 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bearish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $88 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.18 · Δ -0.45
SHORT PUT · $81 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $0.84 · Δ -0.17
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bear Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ORLY hits $78 by Dec 18: the bear put spread returns +$466 (198.5%) on $234 risked, vs $-1,012 (-11.5%) for 100 shares on $8,812. Options give 17.3× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ORLY is at $78. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ORLY hits $78 by Dec 18
+$466
+198.5% on $234 risked
Max Profit
+$466
If the stock ≤ $81 at expiry
Max Loss
−$234
Net debit
Break-even
$85.66
-2.8% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
25%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-28.11 / -0.97 / 4.57
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ORLY Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $71 (-20%) | +$434 | +$452 | +$463 | +$466 |
| $75 (-15%) | +$377 | +$408 | +$446 | +$466 |
| $78 (-11%) ← target | +$308 | +$341 | +$394 | +$466 |
| $79 (-10%) | +$272 | +$302 | +$355 | +$466 |
| $84 (-5%) | +$136 | +$142 | +$154 | +$195 |
| $86 (-2%) | +$52 | +$41 | +$18 | -$70 |
| $88 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | -$20 | -$61 | -$234 |
| $90 (+2%) | -$46 | -$73 | -$123 | -$234 |
| $93 (+5%) | -$105 | -$136 | -$184 | -$234 |
| $97 (+10%) | -$172 | -$198 | -$225 | -$234 |
| $101 (+15%) | -$208 | -$223 | -$233 | -$234 |
| $106 (+20%) | -$224 | -$231 | -$234 | -$234 |
Uses ORLY's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.