Target Price Playground
ORLY
$88.12
🟢
ORLY IV: 25.9% — LOW
(-33.8% vs 30d avg of 39.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $99 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Moderately bullish. Debit, capped max profit + loss.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG CALL · $88 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $3.82 · Δ 0.55
SHORT CALL · $95 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.41 · Δ 0.22
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Bull Call Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ORLY hits $99 by Dec 18: the bull call spread returns +$459 (190.4%) on $241 risked, vs +$1,088 (12.3%) for 100 shares on $8,812. Options give 15.5× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ORLY is at $99. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ORLY hits $99 by Dec 18
+$459
+190.4% on $241 risked
Max Profit
+$459
If the stock ≥ $95 at expiry
Max Loss
−$241
Net debit
Break-even
$90.41
+2.6% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
22%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
33.23 / -1.73 / 3.31
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ORLY Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $71 (-20%) | -$237 | -$240 | -$241 | -$241 |
| $75 (-15%) | -$223 | -$235 | -$241 | -$241 |
| $79 (-10%) | -$184 | -$209 | -$234 | -$241 |
| $84 (-5%) | -$105 | -$138 | -$188 | -$241 |
| $86 (-2%) | -$39 | -$67 | -$117 | -$241 |
| $88 (0%) ← spot | +$10 | -$10 | -$49 | -$229 |
| $90 (+2%) | +$62 | +$52 | +$31 | -$53 |
| $93 (+5%) | +$140 | +$147 | +$161 | +$212 |
| $97 (+10%) | +$258 | +$286 | +$337 | +$459 |
| $99 (+12%) ← target | +$304 | +$336 | +$388 | +$459 |
| $101 (+15%) | +$346 | +$379 | +$424 | +$459 |
| $106 (+20%) | +$401 | +$427 | +$451 | +$459 |
Uses ORLY's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.