Target Price Playground

Templates Custom Builder LEAP Simulator
ORLY
$88.12
🟢
ORLY IV: 25.9% — LOW (-33.8% vs 30d avg of 39.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection If price hits $93 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest Coming soon
Signal Backtest Coming soon

📋 Strategy

Long Stock Long Call Long Put Bull Call Spread Bear Put Spread Covered Call Protective Put Cash-Secured Put Diagonal Put Spread Long Straddle
Sell OTM put for premium; get assigned if price drops.

🎯 Target

48d from today

⚙️ Legs

SHORT PUT · $81 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $0.84 · Δ -0.17
P&L at Expiry Now $88 Target $93 $62 $88 $115
Stock (100 sh) Cash-Secured Put Now Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target

If ORLY hits $93 by Dec 18: the cash-secured put returns +$84 (1.0%) on $-84 credit (max loss $8,016), vs +$488 (5.5%) for 100 shares on $8,812. Options give 0.2× capital efficiency.

📅 Expiry

Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ORLY is at $93. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.

📊 Projected Return

P&L if ORLY hits $93 by Dec 18
+$84
+1.0% on $8,016 max loss
Max Profit
+$84
If the stock ≥ $81 at expiry
Max Loss
−$8,016
If stock → $0 after assignment
Break-even
$80.16
-9.03% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
58%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
17.0 / 2.12 / -8.09
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
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📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)

Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.

📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates

ORLY Price Today Nov 16 Dec 2 Dec 18 (exp)
$71 (-20%) -$950 -$947 -$951 -$966
$75 (-15%) -$584 -$556 -$529 -$526
$79 (-10%) -$298 -$250 -$186 -$85
$84 (-5%) -$108 -$58 +$5 +$84
$86 (-2%) -$34 +$7 +$54 +$84
$88 (0%) ← spot +$0 +$35 +$70 +$84
$90 (+2%) +$26 +$54 +$78 +$84
$93 (+6%) ← target +$55 +$72 +$83 +$84
$97 (+10%) +$73 +$81 +$84 +$84
$101 (+15%) +$81 +$83 +$84 +$84
$106 (+20%) +$83 +$84 +$84 +$84
Uses ORLY's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.