Target Price Playground
ORLY
$88.12
🟢
ORLY IV: 25.9% — LOW
(-33.8% vs 30d avg of 39.1%)
Options are cheap vs 30d avg — good time to BUY options (long calls/puts, debit spreads).
Forward Projection
If price hits $84 by Dec 18
Historical Backtest
Coming soon
Signal Backtest
Coming soon
📋 Strategy
Long Stock
Long Call
Long Put
Bull Call Spread
Bear Put Spread
Covered Call
Protective Put
Cash-Secured Put
Diagonal Put Spread
Long Straddle
Buy a longer-dated put, sell a shorter-dated OTM put. Profits from time decay + a moderate drop.
🎯 Target
48d from today
⚙️ Legs
LONG PUT · $88 · Jan '27
Qty 1 · Premium $3.93 · Δ -0.44
SHORT PUT · $84 · Dec '26
Qty 1 · Premium $1.59 · Δ -0.28
P&L at Expiry
Stock (100 sh)
Diagonal Put Spread
Now
Target
💡 Stock vs Options at Target
If ORLY hits $84 by Dec 18: the diagonal put spread returns +$252 (107.7%) on $234 risked, vs $-412 (-4.7%) for 100 shares on $8,812. Options give 22.9× capital efficiency.
📅 Expiry
Options expire Dec 18, 2026 (48 days out). P&L shown is the value at expiry if ORLY is at $84. Use the 30d / 60d / 90d / 180d pills to compare different expiries.
📊 Projected Return
P&L if ORLY hits $84 by Dec 18
+$252
+107.7% on $234 risked
Max Profit
+$241
If the stock price is favorable
Max Loss
−$234
Worst-case within chart range
Break-even
$88.40
+0.32% from spot
Prob. of Target Hit
64%
IV-implied, 48d (rough)
Net Δ / Θ / V
-16.33 / 0.41 / 5.15
per spread, per $1 move / day / vol pt
📋 Notes for each mode (not shown on real page)
Forward Projection
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Reprices legs at (target_price, target_date) via Black-Scholes. Works on existing BS service. Simplest mode — ship first.
Historical Backtest
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Uses our historical options chains to replay this exact strategy over past expirations. Needs: date picker, "rolling every N days", cumulative P&L chart.
Signal Backtest
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
"Run this strategy on every BUY-rated stock with score ≥ 80 for last 90d." Reuses score_backtest pipeline + strategy overlay.
Solve for Return
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
Inverse: user says "+50% in 90d", system solves for required price move, shows IV-implied probability. Pure math.
📊 P&L Scenarios — what happens at different prices and dates
| ORLY Price | Today | Nov 16 | Dec 2 | Dec 18 (exp) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| $71 (-20%) | +$138 | +$139 | +$138 | +$136 |
| $75 (-15%) | +$134 | +$143 | +$147 | +$140 |
| $79 (-10%) | +$113 | +$131 | +$155 | +$163 |
| $84 (-5%) ← target | +$63 | +$82 | +$114 | +$252 |
| $86 (-2%) | +$28 | +$42 | +$64 | +$103 |
| $88 (0%) ← spot | +$0 | +$8 | +$19 | +$12 |
| $90 (+2%) | -$29 | -$27 | -$29 | -$60 |
| $93 (+5%) | -$71 | -$78 | -$94 | -$137 |
| $97 (+10%) | -$133 | -$147 | -$171 | -$203 |
| $101 (+15%) | -$177 | -$192 | -$210 | -$226 |
| $106 (+20%) | -$205 | -$216 | -$226 | -$232 |
Uses ORLY's current IV for repricing. P&L includes all legs (stock + options). Qty: 1x.